US obesity rates hit 40% of adults, 20% of youth – Earth.com
07-15-2026
Obesity rates in the U.S. reached record highs by 2023
ByRaquel Brandao
Earth.com staff writer
These are the results of a new analysis based on more than two decades of national health data
Across that whole period, obesity rates in the U.S. rose without pause. The most severe forms of obesity grew fastest of all
The share of adults carrying enough excess weight to face the highest risk of heart disease and early death doubled over the period
The study offers the most current national picture yet of how far the problem has spread
A steady climb in obesity rates
A long-running federal survey supplies the numbers. Every couple of years it weighs and measures a fresh sample of Americans
Researchers pulled records from 1999 through 2023, covering nearly 8,700 people in each round, roughly a third of them under age 20
Dr. Anum Minhas, an assistant professor of medicine in cardiology at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine (JHU) in Baltimore, led the study
Her team set obesity at a body mass index of 30 or higher – the standard measure that weighs a person against their height, and defined severe obesity as a reading of 40 or more
Among adults, obesity climbed from roughly 30% in 1999 to 41% in 2023. Severe obesity doubled over the same span, from about 5% to 10%, the range where the danger to the heart runs highest
The team believes no earlier analysis has tracked these trends so close to the present
“Obesity is a leading public health concern, linked to higher risks for cardiovascular disease and premature death,” said Minhas
Where the fat settles
Body mass index captures overall size, but it says nothing about where the weight sits
The team also tracked abdominal obesity, the fat that collects around the waist and packs in close to the organs. They measured it the plain way, with a tape around the middle
That fat carries its own risk, separate from weight alone. In adults, abdominal obesity rose from roughly 48% in 1999 to 61% by 2023
A recent data brief has tracked the same waist circumference measure across children and adults alike
Obesity among children and teenagers climbed by about a third, while severe obesity rose by roughly half
Abdominal obesity nearly tripled between 1999 and 2023. Few national analyses had followed those waistlines so far into the present
The rise never fell evenly. By 2023, women were far more likely than men to carry severe or abdominal obesity
Thirteen percent of women reached severe obesity compared to seven percent of men, and 70% of women had abdominal obesity compared with 51 percent
The researchers tie part of that gap to the hormonal changes women pass through across a lifetime, from puberty to pregnancy to menopause
They stop short of calling it the whole story. How the body stores fat comes into it as well
One pattern held steady across every survey year. Non-Hispanic Black Americans carried the highest rates of obesity of any group tracked, a gap that neither widened nor closed as the decades passed
A possible decline
The climb through 2023 lands at an odd moment. Just as this study documents obesity reaching new highs, a separate strand of research suggests the long rise may finally be bending
A 2024 analysis of nearly 17 million insured adults found that obesity dipped slightly in 2023, the first national decline in more than a decade
The drop was steepest in the South, the same region where prescriptions for GLP-1 weight-loss drugs ran highest
Those drugs, sold as Ozempic, Wegovy and Zepbound, blunt appetite by mimicking a gut hormone that signals fullness. Their use climbed sharply over the same years this study covers
That overlap makes the two trends hard to untangle. The researchers who found the dip stayed cautious, and would not claim one caused the other
What the data means
The study settles the scale of the problem through 2023. Severe obesity and the fat carried around the waist grew faster than obesity measured by weight alone, and young people were not spared
That fuller picture gives doctors a clearer baseline to work from. Whether the recent turn holds is the open question
A 2025 survey put the adult obesity rate at 37%, down from a peak near 40%, as GLP-1 use more than doubled
If that decline lasts, the highs recorded here may prove the top of a long curve rather than another step up
The tape measure and the prescription pad now tell different stories
“We must increase the availability and use of individual and population-level initiatives to target the rising epidemic of obesity and support people with obesity,” said Minhas
The study is published in the journal Circulation
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