New York, 16 July 2026. The updated analysis from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center (NOAA) on 9 July, corroborated by leading international climate models, indicates that the El Niño phenomenon is expected to reach very strong intensity in 2026. For Action Against Hunger, these forecasts serve as a warning: the humanitarian consequences could be severe in contexts already weakened by conflict, economic crises and climate change. This predictability imposes a collective responsibility: to act before disaster strikes, rather than waiting to respond to an emergency
A Known Risk, Predictable Consequences
Previous El Niño events have demonstrated their ability to disrupt rainfall patterns, amplify extreme weather events and cause lasting damage to the livelihoods of already vulnerable populations. In several countries where Action Against Hunger operates, the expected consequences are particularly worrying:
· Madagascar: drought in the south and increased cyclone risk in the east
Southern Madagascar is already experiencing a rainfall deficit of over 300 mm over a 90-day period, which is exacerbating the risks of drought, crop losses and food insecurity. At the same time, the east coast is facing an increased risk of cyclones, exacerbated by a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) , which is likely to increase the intensity of storms and extreme rainfall, according to the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWSNET )
· Cameroon: the North particularly at risk from this summer onwards
The Adamaoua and Far North regions are among the areas most vulnerable to the expected effects of El Niño. Forecasts point to severe drought, with direct consequences for harvests, agricultural incomes, access to water and the nutritional status of the population. Strategic agricultural sectors such as cocoa could also be affected, with economic repercussions extending far beyond the areas directly affected
· Yemen: from October onwards, a dangerous combination of extreme heat and flooding
In Yemen, people could face a particularly complex scenario combining extreme heatwaves with an increased risk of flash floods. This combination weakens infrastructure, compromises access to safe drinking water and increases health risks in an already critical humanitarian context
· Iraq: a water crisis set to worsen this autumn
Already facing a multi-year water crisis, Iraq could see a worsening of water shortages, further degradation of agricultural land and an increase in sandstorms, with significant e impacts on people’s health, livelihoods and food security
Anticipating and Preparing to Limit the Impacts on the Most Vulnerable
“We know that El Niño is on its way. We know where communities will be most at risk and we know the kinds of impacts they will face. When these impacts coincide with major humanitarian crises, such as those in Nigeria, the DRC or Chad, they act as amplifiers of vulnerability. Waiting for the crisis to happen before taking action comes at an unacceptable human cost and a considerable economic cost,” emphasizes Rowan Cody, Deputy Director of Emergency Preparedness and Response at Action Against Hunger.
The organization is therefore strengthening the integration of anticipatory actions into its emergency preparedness mechanisms. Alongside contingency plans developed in countries where it operates, the strengthening of local preparedness and response capacities, the improvement of early warning systems, and coordination with national authorities and local stakeholders, concrete measures are being put in place to ensure an adequate response when an emergency strikes
In areas at risk of sudden disasters, such as cyclones or floods, Action Against Hunger pre-positions water, hygiene and sanitation kits to ensure access to clean, safe drinking water and thus limit the risk of waterborne diseases such as cholera or diarrhea. Similarly, non-food kits containing essential items are stockpiled to meet the needs of people displaced by disasters
In areas threatened by prolonged drought and episodes of extreme heat, measures include, for example, the pre-positioning of stocks of ready-to-use therapeutic foods for the treatment of severe acute malnutrition, the strengthening of nutritional surveillance, and support for communities to safeguard their livelihoods before climate shocks worsen
However, humanitarian funding remains largely focused on post-disaster response rather than on preventing the impacts
“We need to increase flexible and predictable funding dedicated to anticipating and preparing for climate-related crises, whilst maintaining funding dedicated to climate change adaptation,” adds Rowan Cody
As the effects of climate change increase the frequency and intensity of climate-related hazards, the issue is no longer whether intervention will be necessary, but whether to act early enough to prevent a foreseeable climate shock from turning into a humanitarian disaster
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