HURRICANES
Tropical depression could form this week. See Pensacola impact
Brandon GirodPensacola News Journal
Aug. 11, 2026, 10:03 a.m. CT
The chances that Florida will see a tropical depression have just risen to 70%, but whether we see Tropical Storm Cristobal remains to be seen
The National Hurricane Center has been tracking three tropical disturbances in the Atlantic, two of which were heading westward. One of the disturbances is forecast to fizzle out, but the chances that the other will develop continue to rise
Chances that Florida will be impacted by the disturbance, should it develop into Tropical Storm Cristobal, seem small for the moment
The tropical wave will have to battle strong wind shear as it approaches the northern Lesser Antilles, which will inhibit organization and development, according to AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva
Here is what to know about the tropical disturbance
Where is Tropical Disturbance 1 now?
Tropical Disturbance 1 is still pretty far out in the Atlantic. It is located about 500 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, which is more than 3,300 miles from the southern tip of Florida
Is there a tropical storm heading toward Florida?
Not yet. Tropical Disturbance 1 is moving westward, but it still has a lot of ground to cover – and a lot of obstacles to contend with along the way
There are no spaghetti models for the disturbance yet, but looking at tropical storm and hurricane paths from 2025 gives us a good idea of where the disturbance could go
“The stronger the wave becomes, the more likely it is to move north and away from the Lesser Antilles. If this happens, the storm would likely move north into the open Atlantic and not impact the U.S,” DaSilva said in an email to TCPalm.com
“If the wave stays weaker, there is the chance it could move a little closer to the Southeast coast, however it would have to get through a wall of wind shear, which would likely substantially disrupt the storm. If this would approach the U.S., it wouldn’t be until mid- to late next week, so we have plenty of time to watch it.”
Will the tropical disturbance impact Florida’s Gulf Coast?
It’s too early to tell where the disturbance could end up with any certainty, which is why forecasters warn that Floridians should always be prepared for a hurricane
Based on DaSilva’s forecast, the budding storm is more likely to impact the southeastern coast of the United States or avoid it altogether
If the disturbance stays weak and somehow ends up navigating south through the Caribbean Sea, strong wind shear is likely to break it up
Wind shear and Saharan dust will limit development
Tropical Disturbance 2 may have crawled so that Tropical Disturbance 1 could walk
The latest NHC forecast shows the second tropical disturbance, nearest to the Windward Islands in the Caribbean, succumbing to wind shear and dry air. In its wake, the wave could leave a path with less dry air to deal with
Those favorable conditions will end closer to the Lesser Antilles, however
“While there will be dry air and African dust this week in the MDR, lower wind shear can allow for gradual development later this week,” DaSilva said. “Environ<a href="https://healthylife7.com/injuries-can-take-a-mental-toll-on-athletes/” title=”Injuries can take a mental toll on athletes”>mental conditions are expected to be less favorable for development closer to the Lesser Antilles.”
