Trump Administration Prepares New Economic Offensive Against Iran as Oil Markets Face Fresh Supply Risks
Monday, 24 August 2026, 21:40
Washington’s planned announcement could reshape the pressure campaign, but Tehran’s response may determine whether energy markets face a far larger shock
On August 24, U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration is preparing a new phase of economic pressure on Iran. It has been dubbed “economic D-Day”: U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to announce measures at 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time that he previously described as “the most extensive financial offensive ever mobilized.”
Washington is seeking to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and bring the six-month conflict in the Middle East to an end. Iran has been under U.S. sanctions for decades, so the key question is what additional leverage the American authorities can use
New U.S. sanctions could affect China
One possible focus of the new sanctions package could be pressure on Tehran’s trading partners. This primarily concerns China, which has traditionally bought the majority of Iranian oil
Such a move could further strain already tense trade relations between the world’s two largest economies. At the same time, the United States has already used one of its toughest economic tools against Iran: a naval blockade of oil exports
The blockade has severely restricted Tehran’s main August fell by nearly 90% compared with 2025 levels, to 259,000 barrels per day
Iran threatens to halt oil exports from the Persian Gulf
Despite the sharp decline in oil revenue, Tehran has shown no willingness to make concessions. Iran rejected U.S. threats and said it could halt all oil exports from the Persian Gulf if the economic war continues
In addition, Iranian authorities warned shipping companies that vessels would not be able to pass through the Strait of Hormuz without Tehran’s permission. The strait is one of the world’s most important energy supply routes
The oil market remains under pressure
Oil prices fell slightly early Monday but remained above $90 per barrel. Market participants continue to fear supply shortages and disruptions in energy transportation
Traders are skeptical of the Trump administration’s claims that shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz have nearly returned to pre-war levels of around 20 million barrels per day. Available data indicate that actual traffic is significantly lower
The main risk is a shortage of refined petroleum products
Discussion of crude oil shipping volumes may distract attention from a more important issue: limited supplies of refined petroleum products to Asian countries. Shortages of gasoline, diesel fuel, and other fuels could further intensify tensions in the global energy market
Global refining is operating under exceptionally high strain, particularly in the United States. Since the start of the war, American companies have significantly increased exports of finished fuels to international markets, while refineries have been operating near maximum capacity for an extended period
High prices allow producers to earn substantial profits, but prolonged operation in “super-refining” mode creates technical risks. Excessive strain on equipment could lead to serious accidents and unplanned refinery shutdowns, further complicating fuel availability
Thus, new sanctions against Iran, restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, and the overburdened refining industry remain key factors that will shape global oil and petroleum product price trends in the near future
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