NFL
The odds say Caleb Williams is a smart MVP bet after his physical transformation
Robert ZeglinskiFor The Win
July 29, 2026, 6:09 p.m. ET
While there’s still so much work to be done, it sure seems like Caleb Williams is the franchise quarterback the Chicago Bears have been waiting for. The reason I say that is because it’s clear that the talented Williams is not content to rest on his laurels. Just a year after taking the Bears to an NFC North division title and their first playoff win in 15 years, Williams came into Chicago’s training camp this summer meaning business
Not only is Williams apparently “10-15” pounds lighter after dedicating himself to his fitness over the offseason, but he’s also speaking more like the Bears’ obvious leader and has an apparent greater comfort and attention to detail for Ben Johnson’s offense and coaching style now that he’s had two offseasons to get acclimated
It is this sort of context that leads me to believe Williams might be the smartest NFL MVP bet you can make during this preseason:
Right now, oddsmakers with DraftKings have Williams as +1300 to win NFL MVP in 2026. That is eighth-best and tied with Dak Prescott with the same figure. Only the usual suspects like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Patrick Mahomes, among others, have better odds. Hmm. The more I think about it, the more I realize those Williams MVP odds aren’t bad. Not bad at all, really! In fact, they’re undoubtedly a better value than someone like Allen (+550), who has the best odds to take home another MVP award.
None of this is to say Williams doesn’t have his questions. He still has to prove he can play well for all four quarters every single Sunday. His noted remarkable capacity to turn it on in the fourth quarter is so special, but it’s not sustainable for MVP-caliber quarterbacks who can carry their teams on their back the way some of the titans ahead of Williams in MVP odds already do
Last year was Williams’ breakout. For Williams to make good on these MVP odds while also catapulting the Bears into Super Bowl contention, this season needs to be his leap into consistent superstardom
When was the last time the Bears had the active NFL MVP on their roster?
The late Walter Payton won NFL MVP in 1977. As for a quarterback, you have to go all the way back to Sid Luckman in 1943
Who is the reigning NFL MVP?
Matthew Stafford of the Los Angeles Rams won the most recent NFL MVP
