ESPN trade value exercise paints Cam Ward in new and surprising light as a top-13 most valuable QB in the NFL
ESPN analyst Bill Barnwell went through every player in the NFL that would fetch at least one first round pick in a trade, and Cam Ward came out a lot more valuable than Titans fans might have expected…
Easton Freeze—Tennessee Titans Beat Writer
Jul 19, 2026 12:31 PM EDT
The Tennessee Titans have four players who would fetch at least one first-round pick in a trade, at least
Jeffrey Simmons, Carnell Tate, Peter Skoronski, and quarterback Cam Ward all made the cut in Barnwell’s latest evaluation of trade value across the league. But the Cam Ward piece is what catches my attention most, because it paints him as a top-13 most valuable QB in the NFL
That sounds aggressive! But break it down, and the perspective starts to make sense
Why Cam Ward is one of the more valuable QB’s in the NFL today
Barnwell pegged Ward’s trade value at two first-round picks, placing him ahead of 19 other teams’ quarterbacks. Here is what he wrote about the 2025 first overall pick:
“Do you believe the numbers or your eyes? Ward was the worst quarterback in the league by total QBR in 2025. Taking an astronomical number of sacks while failing to complete even 60% of his passes or average at least 6 yards per attempt. Watching the Titans more closely, though, I saw a quarterback who consistently got to the right answers and made plays out of structure, only to be let down by dismal tackle play and one of the worst receiving cores in the league. Ward wasn’t a consensus first overall pick last year and didn’t have the sort of resume that projected him as a generational quarterback prospect, so there are surely organizations who don’t view him as a legitimate quarterback of the future, but I still think there are plenty of teams that would see Ward as a very exciting prospect after year 1, though. He should be worth either a lot more or a lot less this time next year.”
I generally agree with Barnwell here, and I think his last point is the most important. The two first-round picks Ward would likely command right now are a reflection of expected value more than realized value, which is not unusual for a rookie quarterback going into year two. By this time next year, we’ll have a much clearer picture. A strong sophomore season could push his value to three or four first-rounders. A rough one could land him in the Bryce Young category, where teams start wondering whether the first overall pedigree will ever translate.
Where Barnwell missed the mark
For the most part, the list is reasonable. The eight teams whose quarterbacks didn’t even earn an honorable mention (the Jets, Dolphins, Browns, Steelers, Colts, Vikings, Falcons, and Cardinals) shouldn’t generate any protests. Veterans like Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, Matt Stafford, and Sam Darnold landing below Ward makes sense when you factor in age and contract status. Trading for those guys means inheriting massive deals or getting players near the tail end of their careers. Ward, if he pans out, could be playing in this league for the next 15 years.
I also agree with Barnwell’s placement of Brock Purdy below Ward. My first question about trading for Purdy would be whether Kyle Shanahan is coming with him! Purdy is a top-shelf maximizer of the talent around him, and in San Francisco, that has worked beautifully. But is he going to walk into a lesser situation and elevate those around him with his play? That’s not his profile
The area where Barnwell lost me is twofold. First, he has Raiders first overall pick Fernando Mendoza valued at three first-round picks. What has Mendoza done in college that made him that much more of a surefire prospect than Ward? By all accounts, Mendoza isn’t even expected to start for Las Vegas to begin the season. If things go the way partial Raiders owner Tom Brady wants, Mendoza will sit behind Kirk Cousins for most or all of the year. An additional first-round pick over Ward feels unjustified.
Second, and more egregiously, Barnwell had Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott valued at only a bit more than one first-round pick. I think if you gave every general manager in the league two firsts to send to either Tennessee for Ward or Dallas for Prescott, I think more of them would pick Prescott. He’s an elevator of his team in a way that players like Purdy are not. He’s a pro’s pro and an underrated player who can carry a roster. That felt like the biggest miss on the entire list
Among fellow 2025 rookies, Jaxson Dart landing below Ward makes sense given his injuries and later draft slot. But Tyler Shough not even being deemed worthy of a single first-round pick struck me as… a bit disrespectful! I know he wasn’t a first-round pick himself, and lacks the cost control of a fifth-year option, and his injury history from college follows him. But Shough was healthy last season and you could easily argue he was the best of the three rookie quarterbacks. He turned me into a believer after I doubted him throughout the draft cycle. At the very least, he should have cleared the one first-round pick threshold.
The bottom line is that Titans fans should feel encouraged. Cam Ward’s trade value, his cost-controlled contract, and his untapped ceiling put him squarely in the top tier of young quarterbacks. The question now is whether year two moves him up or down from here
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