LLY Stock Could Break Above $1,240 as Eli Lilly’s Obesity Drug Growth Drives Record Rally
Eli Lilly stock LLY holds near record highs as Mounjaro, Zepbound and JPMorgan’s $1,400 target keep bulls focused on $1,240
Written by:
Arslan Butt•Friday, July 10, 2026•3 min read
•Last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026
Quick overview
- Eli Lilly shares are trading near all-time highs, driven by strong demand for its obesity and diabetes drugs, Mounjaro and Zepbound.
- JPMorgan has raised its price target for Eli Lilly to $1,400, reflecting confidence in continued growth in obesity-drug demand.
- The company’s international revenue surged 81% in the latest quarter, indicating a broadening market for obesity treatments beyond the U.S.
- Eli Lilly’s pipeline, including the oral GLP-1 pill Foundayo, adds to its growth potential, although high expectations and market risks remain.
Eli Lilly shares remain near all-time highs as booming Mounjaro and Zepbound demand, global obesity-market growth, and bullish analyst targets keep the trillion-dollar pharma stock in focus
Eli Lilly Holds Near Record Highs
Eli Lilly continues to trade near record highs as investors reward one of the strongest growth stories in global healthcare. The company’s obesity and diabetes drugs have transformed its earnings profile and pushed its market value above $1 trillion
JPMorgan Raises LLY’s Target to $1,400
JPMorgan analyst Chris Schott reiterated an Overweight rating on Eli Lilly and raised the firm’s price target to $1,400 from $1,300
The call reflects confidence that obesity-drug demand will keep expanding in the U.S. and internationally. Even after Lilly’s major rally, JPMorgan’s target still implies double-digit upside from current levels
The next key test comes when Lilly reports second-quarter results on August 5, with investors watching whether earnings again exceed consensus estimates
Mounjaro and Zepbound Power the Growth Story
Eli Lilly’s growth is being driven by its incretin franchise
In Q1 2026, Mounjaro generated $8.66 billion in revenue, up 125% year over year. Zepbound delivered $4.16 billion, with U.S. revenue up 80%. Together, these drugs have made Lilly the clear leader in the global obesity and diabetes treatment boom
The company’s Q1 revenue reached $19.8 billion, up 55.5% year over year, while non-GAAP EPS came in at $8.55, well ahead of expectations
Management also raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $82 billion to $85 billion, underscoring the scale of demand
Global Expansion Adds Another Catalyst
While the U.S. remains the world’s most lucrative pharmaceutical market, Lilly’s obesity business is increasingly becoming a global growth story
International revenue rose 81% to $7.7 billion in the latest quarter, showing that demand is broadening beyond the U.S. market. That matters because obesity treatment adoption is still early in many countries
The new GLP-1 Bridge program also expands access for eligible Medicare patients, potentially opening a larger domestic market. With millions of Medicare patients potentially qualifying for obesity treatments, analysts see room for further upside
Oral GLP-1 Pipeline Strengthens the Bull Case
Lilly’s pipeline is another reason investors continue to pay a premium valuation
Foundayo, Lilly’s oral GLP-1 pill, has drawn attention because it can be taken without food or water restrictions. The drug also reportedly outperformed oral semaglutide in a head-to-head type 2 diabetes trial
If Lilly can successfully scale oral obesity and diabetes treatments alongside injectable drugs, the company could expand its market even further
The company has also been active in M&A, adding assets through deals for Orna Therapeutics, Centessa Pharmaceuticals, Kelonia Therapeutics, and Ajax Therapeutics
LLY Chart Technical Analysis: Uptrend Remains Intact
From a technical perspective, Eli Lilly’s 4-hour chart remains bullish
LLY is trading above the 10 EMA at $1,213.44, 20 EMA at $1,197.93, 50 EMA at $1,155.05, and 200 EMA at $1,049.63. All major moving averages are flashing buy signals, confirming a strong upward structure
RSI sits at 61.11, showing positive momentum without being deeply overbought. The ADX at 28.34 suggests the trend still has strength
However, MACD and Momentum are both showing sell signals, while the Hull Moving Average at $1,218.09 is also flashing caution. That suggests the stock may need to consolidate before attempting another breakout
Key Levels: $1,218, $1,240 and $1,200
The first resistance level is $1,218-$1,220, where the Hull Moving Average sits
A clean break above that zone could send LLY back toward the recent high near $1,238-$1,240. Above $1,240, traders may begin focusing on the JPMorgan target path toward $1,400
On the downside, the first key support is $1,200, followed by the 20 EMA near $1,198. A deeper pullback could test $1,164, where the Ichimoku base line sits
Eli Lilly Is Still Bullish, But Expectations Are High
Eli Lilly remains one of the strongest large-cap growth stories in healthcare. Mounjaro, Zepbound, oral GLP-1 development, international expansion, and consistent earnings beats continue to support the bull case
However, valuation leaves little room for disappointment. Pricing pressure, supply constraints, insurance coverage, and pipeline execution remain key risks
For now, LLY remains constructive above $1,200, but bulls need a breakout above $1,240 to confirm the next leg higher
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
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Arslan Butt
Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.
His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.
His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
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