Tropical Depression Two has strengthened into <a href="https://healthylife7.com/gulf-depression-forecast-to-become-tropical-storm/" title="Gulf depression forecast to become <a href="https://healthylife7.com/tropical-storm-bertha-forms-on-track-approaching-us-gulf-coast/" title="Tropical Storm Bertha forms on track approaching US Gulf Coast”>tropical storm“>Tropical Storm Bertha on Monday evening. As the storm tracks westward, torrential rain, flooding, gusty thunderstorms and building seas are expected along the Gulf Coast this week
As of Monday morning, thunderstorms associated with the depression remained spread over several hundred miles, with most of the activity over the Gulf
While much of the Gulf Coast was sunny Monday morning, conditions are expected to deteriorate later this week, depending on the track and strength of the tropical storm
Farther north track: Lower wind threat
“How much the storm organizes over the northern Gulf this week will determine both its track and where the heaviest rainfall falls,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Breanna Grill said
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“A ‘hug-the-coast’ scenario would keep overall winds weaker,” Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. “However, heavy to flooding rainfall would increase along the central Gulf Coast before spreading inland as the storm loses wind intensity.”
A broad, elongated swath of 1-4 inches of rain is forecast. Northeasterly winds would keep the heaviest rainfall near the Interstate 10 corridor, with much lower totals likely north toward Interstate 20. Pockets of 4-8 inches are forecast, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 15 inches
While the storm would lose wind intensity relatively quickly after moving inland, it could still produce drenching rain for days as a tropical rainstorm. Interests along the Interstate 10 corridor should prepare for tropical-storm-force wind gusts of 40-60 mph, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ gust of 75 mph, which is hurricane-force
Torrential rain would be less likely to reach Texas with this hug-the-coast scenario
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Storm surge is generally expected to range from 1 to 3 feet, but could be higher if the storm strengthens significantly
Farther south track: Stronger storm, greater Texas threat
A more concerning scenario would develop if the storm tracks farther south over the Gulf
“That would likely allow the storm to strengthen much more because its center would remain over the warm waters of the open Gulf for a longer period,” DaSilva said. “Strengthening to perhaps a high-end tropical storm or hurricane would be possible in this case.”
This farther south track would keep the center of the storm away from Louisiana, but could ultimately spread heavy rain, gusty winds and potentially damaging surf farther to the west in Texas
This stronger, farther-west track could also spread flooding rainfall into central Texas
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“The Texas Hill Country may be especially vulnerable to downpours due to saturated ground and infrastructure damaged by the catastrophic flooding last week,” Grill added
Coastal dangers are increasing regardless
Regardless of which scenario unfolds, conditions on the Gulf will become increasingly hazardous for boaters this week. Sudden squalls can rapidly increase winds and build rough seas
Brewing tropical storms often produce severe thunderstorms capable of spawning tornadoes and waterspouts
Surf will steadily build much of this week, increasing wave energy and raising the strength and frequency of dangerous rip currents
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As wave heights build, the risk of overwash on low-lying coastal roads will also increase
At this time, there appears to be a minimal threat to offshore petroleum rigs, which are designed to withstand major hurricanes. However, AccuWeather meteorologists will be closely monitoring the progress of the storm and will provide updates on its intensity-based track
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