Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY | LLY Price Prediction) opened Wednesday’s session with a blowout second-quarter earnings report, sending shares sharply higher and cementing the drugmaker’s status as the only pharmaceutical company trading above a $1 trillion market cap. On a CNBC segment breaking down the release, anchor Joe Kernen walked viewers through the headline figures that pushed the stock up 4.4% on Wednesday
“Earnings well above estimates of $3.28 a share. And revenue jumped 48% from a year ago to 22.97 billion. The estimate was 20.7 billion, driven primarily by Mounjaro and Zepbound volume,” Kernen said
Weight-Loss Drug Demand Is Exploding, Affordability Remains a Constraint
The company’s Type 2 diabetes treatment, Mounjaro, continues to drive impressive results. “U.S. Mounjaro sales themselves surged 91% from a year ago to $9.9 billion in a quarter. Zepbound sales increased 46% to $4.9 billion,” Kernen noted on the broadcast. Mounjaro international revenue climbed 172%, aided by the drug’s addition to China’s National Reimbursement Drug List. Combined, Mounjaro and Zepbound generated $14.871 billion in the quarter
Worldwide volume increased 60%, more than offsetting a 13% decline in realized prices. That volume-over-price dynamic drew a pointed comment from Kernen’s cohost about the ceiling on the category: “You run out of patients who can potentially afford to pay. But man, there is demand for this.“Affordability is a bottleneck on sales in this category.As lower-cost oral GLP-1 options roll out, that constraint could loosen
Eli Lilly Is Spending Billions to Prepare for What Comes Next
“Lilly is also raising its full-year revenue and earnings guidance,” Kernen added. Management now sees full-year revenue of $85.0-$87.0 billion, up from the prior $82.0-$85.0 billion range, with performance margin (gross margin minus R&D, marketing, selling, and admin. expenses) now guided to 49.0%-50.5%. Non-GAAP EPS is guided to $35.50 to $36.50, with a $2.78 midpoint benefit from business strength offset by $3.03 in IPR&D charges tied to a wave of Q2 acquisitions
CEO David Ricks framed the setup on the release:“Lilly’s momentum continues, as we delivered 48% revenue growth and raised our full-year guidance. At the same time, Lilly is building for the future. With our next-generation weight-loss medicine retatrutide and its complete clinical data package in hand, new manufacturing capacity coming online, and exciting new assets entering our pipeline through business development, Lilly’s future, after 150 years, has never been brighter.” Details in the Q2 2026 earnings release flag a planned Q1 2027 BLA for retatrutide and an additional $4.5 billion commitment to Indiana manufacturing.
What to Watch Next
Lilly’s status as the only pharmaceutical company with a $1 trillion market cap reflects both the depth of the GLP-1 franchise and rival Novo Nordisk’s stumbles in the same category. Analyst sentiment mirrors this, with 17 buys, 5 strong buys, 4 holds, and an average price target of $1,276.96, compared with a current share price of about $1,163. Shares are up 46.1% over the past year and 342.61% over five years
The biggest question today for Lilly is how quickly the company can expand access, increase production, and convert its loaded pipeline into additional blockbusters. As long as volume growth continues to outpace pricing pressure, Lilly’s $1 trillion valuation has a credible path to keep growing well beyond Mounjaro and Zepbound
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