Abstract
People with cancer may be susceptible to acute environmental stressors, including ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5), but the contribution of traffic-related particles to short-term cancer mortality remains uncertain. We analysed daily cancer mortality records by cancer site from 2000 to 2019 across eight countries (Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, South Korea, Mexico, New Zealand and Thailand). A time-stratified case-crossover design was used to assess associations with all-source PM2.5 and traffic-sourced PM2.5 (TSPM2.5). The analysis included 9,223,612 cancer deaths. Every 10 μg m−3 increase in the 2-day moving average of all-source PM2.5 exposure (lag 0–1) was associated with a 0.77% increase in all-cancer mortality risk (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.64–0.89%). The corresponding increase in TSPM2.5 was associated with a 3.87% increase (95% CI 3.28–4.47%). Although TSPM2.5 represented only 14.72% of total PM2.5 concentrations, it accounted for 73.55% of PM2.5-attributable cancer deaths during the study period, equivalent to 1.21% (95% CI 1.03–1.39%) of total cancer mortality. Effect modification by age, sex or socioeconomic status was not statistically significant. Reducing TSPM2.5 exposure may help lower acute pollution-related mortality risks among people with cancer.
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Subjects
- Environmental impact
- Risk factors
Data availability
Publicly available data are found here: the global gridded GDP (https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2018.4) and the Gridded Population of the World (version 4, https://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/collection/gpw-v4); surface temperature and ambient dewpoint temperature from ERA5 (https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era5). Data supporting the GEOS-Chem model development and TSPM2.5 simulation in this study can be found from MIX v1.1 Asian anthropogenic emissions (http://meicmodel.org.cn/?page_id=87&lang=en), Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (http://meicmodel.org.cn/?page_id=125&lang=en), European Monitoring and Evaluation Program (https://www.emep.int/), Diffuse and Inefficient Combustion Emissions Africa inventory (https://www2.acom.ucar.edu/modeling/dice-africa) and National Emission Inventory of America (https://www.epa.gov/air-emissions-inventories/national-emissions-inventory-nei). The authors do not have permission to directly share the health outcome data. Interested researchers should contact the corresponding author Y.G. on a case-by-case basis for further information about the restricted health outcome data and the relevant data access procedures. Source data are provided with this paper.
Code availability
Analysis codes are available from the corresponding authors on request and shared on https://github.com/Yukieuuuuu/Traffic_PM25_short_term_cancer_mortality
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Funding
This study was supported by the Australian Research Council (grant no. DP210102076), the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (grant no. APP2000581) and the National Research Council of Thailand E-Asia Joint Research Program: climate change impact on natural and human systems (grant no. N33A670560). S.L. was supported by an Emerging Leader Fellowship (grant no. GNT2009866) of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council and Y.G. by Leader Fellowship (grant no. GNT2008813) of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council. The funders had no role in data collection, analysis, interpretation, writing of the manuscript or the decision to submit.
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Authors and Affiliations
Guangdong Key Laboratory of Environmental Pollution and Health, College of Environment and Climate, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China
Pei Yu
Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
Pei Yu, Wenzhong Huang, Zhengyu Yang, Michael J. Abramson, Tingting Ye, Wenhua Yu, Yanming Liu, Ke Ju, Yiwen Zhang, Yao Wu, Bo Wen, Yuming Guo & Shanshan Li
Chongqing Emergency Medical Center, Chongqing University Central Hospital, School of Medicine, Chongqing University, Chongqing, China
Rongbin Xu
School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Nursing and Health Sciences, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
Rongbin Xu
Key Laboratory of Environmental Medicine and Engineering of Ministry of Education, and School of Public Health, Southeast University, Nanjing, China
Wenzhong Huang
Department of Urban Planning and Design, the Social Infrastructure for Equity and Wellbeing (SIEW) Lab, and the Hong Kong Base of the State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Building and Urban Science, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
Zhengyu Yang
International Laboratory for Air Quality and Health, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
Lidia Morawska
Menzies Institute for Medical Research, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
Fay H. Johnston
Sydney School of Public Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
Luke Knibbs
Public Health Research Analytics and Methods for Evidence, Public Health Unit, Sydney Local Health District, Camperdown, New South Wales, Australia
Luke Knibbs
Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
Guy B. Marks
School of Population and Global Health, The University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia, Australia
Jane Heyworth
Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
Ho Kim
Department of Social and Environmental Medicine, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
Kraichat Tantrakarnapa & Wissanupong Kliengchuay
School of Medicine, University of the Andes (Chile), Las Condes, Chile
Patricia Matus
Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand
Simon Hales
School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
Eric Lavigne
Environmental Health Science and Research Bureau, Health Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
Eric Lavigne
Department of Pathology, School of Medicine, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
Paulo H. N. Saldiva & Micheline S. Z. S. Coelho
School of Statistics and Data Science, Southeast University, Nanjing, China
Yanming Liu
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Contributions
S.L. and Y.G. designed and supervised the study and are cosenior authors. P.Y. conducted the statistical analysis and took the lead in drafting the paper and interpreting the results. P.Y. and R.X. estimated the all-source and TSPM2.5 exposure data. P.Y., R.X., W.H., Z.Y., T.Y., W.Y., Y.L., K.J., Y.Z., Y.W. and B.W. cleaned, processed or analysed the data. L.M., F.H.J., M.J.A., L.K., G.B.M., J.H., H.K., K.T., W.K., P.M., S.H., E.L., P.H.N.S. and M.S.Z.S.C. provided or supported access to the mortality data and contributed to results interpretation. All authors, including P.Y., R.X., W.H., Z.Y., L.M., F.H.J., M.J.A., L.K., G.B.M., J.H., H.K., K.T., W.K., P.M., S.H., E.L., P.H.N.S., M.S.Z.S.C., T.Y., W.Y., Y.L., K.J., Y.Z., Y.W., B.W., Y.G. and S.L., revised and edited the paper and approved the submitted version. The corresponding authors attest that all listed authors meet authorship criteria and that no others meeting the criteria have been omitted.
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M.J.A. holds investigator-initiated grants from Pfizer, Boehringer-Ingelheim, GSK and Sanofi for unrelated research. He has undertaken an unrelated consultancy for Sanofi. The other authors declare no competing interests
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Yu, P., Xu, R., Huang, W. et al. Contributions of traffic to daily PM2.5 exposure and links to cancer mortality.
Nat Sustain (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-026-01925-5
Received:22 January 2025
Accepted:31 July 2026
Published:21 August 2026
Version of record:21 August 2026
DOI
:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-026-01925-5


