- Tropical development is possible in the Gulf or near the Southeast U.S. coast this weekend into early next week, with a low pressure system potentially forming in the northeastern Gulf near Florida by Saturday or Sunday.
- Regardless of tropical development, there is a threat of locally heavy rain this weekend into early next week from parts of Florida into the Carolinas, with the potential for locally soaking downpours that could lead to flash flooding, especially in urban areas.
- A tropical wave moving away from Africa is trying to become more organized as it crosses the Atlantic, with the National Hurricane Center giving this system a low chance of becoming a tropical depression, but slow development is possible this week.
Tropical development is possible in the Gulf or near the Southeast U.S. coast this weekend into early next week, though locally heavy rain may be a threat, regardless, from Florida to the Carolinas
What may happen
We expect an area of low pressure will form in the northeastern Gulf near Florida by either Saturday or Sunday
If enough thunderstorms can sprout near that low pressure center, a tropical depression or even Tropical Storm Bertha could form as soon as this weekend or early next week
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Water in the northeast Gulf and off the Southeast coast is warmer than average, with water temperatures as high as the upper 80s available to fuel any thunderstorms
However, the low may not spend much time over the water, limiting its ability to gain much strength
It could quickly get pulled northeastward into northern Florida, but then either move back off the Southeast coast or remain inland early next week
There is another possible scenario where that Gulf low instead stalls, then drifts northwest or west-northwest next week. For now, the chance of that second scenario appears low
(MORE:El Niño factoring into hurricane season outlook)
Soaking rain possible
You don’t need a tropical depression or storm to wring out heavy rain in summer
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Regardless of tropical development, there is a threat of locally heavy rain this weekend into early next week from parts of Florida into the Carolinas
For now, these locally soaking downpours are most likely in northern and central Florida, above and beyond the typical daily afternoon scattered storms
This system comes from a sagging, weakening frontal boundary that will also wring out locally heavy rain near the Southeast coast
While many of these areas are currently in drought and can use rain, these heavier downpours could lead to local flash flooding, especially in urban areas
(MORE:How to stay safe in a flash flood)
Here are the key takeaways
For now, there’s not too much to be concerned about if you’re near the Gulf or Southeast coast
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However, we’re in hurricane season and things can change quickly. Check back with us at weather.com for updates to this forecast
It’s always a good time to make sure you’re prepared for hurricane season, well before any storms threaten
(MORE:How to stay safe in hurricane season)
Also watching the eastern Atlantic
We also have our eyes on a tropical wave moving away from Africa that is trying to become more organized as it crosses the Atlantic
The National Hurricane Center gives this system a low chance of becoming a tropical depression, but slow development is possible this week
This is an area that is typically starting to see more activity as we move toward August, but storms coming from Africa are expected to struggle against strong wind shear this year. Many tropical waves, regardless of any wind shear, struggle in June and July since they are often pushed off the coast of Africa with heaps of dry, dusty Saharan air that is not favorable for tropical development
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.
