WEATHER
Tropical Storms
Hurricane forecasters closely watch system that could turn dangerous
A tropical depression or storm could soon form in the Atlantic, but whether it can survive harsh El Niño conditions remains to be seen
Dinah Voyles PulverUSA TODAY
Aug. 25, 2026, 4:25 p.m. ET
A new tropical system appears likely to develop after a strong tropical wave rolled off the African coast, and it’s attracting a lot of attention among weather forecasters
But could it survive a trek through the harsh wind conditions influenced by El Niño over the western Atlantic and pose a risk to the U.S. mainland or the Caribbean?
It’s too soon to say. Meteorologists report the long-term tropical forecast models are producing mixed results so far
It “could be something to watch if it can survive long-term, but there’s a lot of uncertainty as to whether that will happen,” wrote Andy Hazelton, an associate scientist at the University of Miami, in a social media post on Aug. 25. The main development region of the Atlantic “is very hostile this year.”
At any rate, it’s still more than a week away and there’s plenty of time to watch what happens during its journey across the Atlantic. However, even with the El Niño contributing its typically lower risk for hurricane development, all the seasonal outlooks issued this year by NOAA and Colorado State University warned it’s not impossible to get a landfalling hurricane during an El Niño
The wave was centered a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands on Aug. 25, said the National Hurricane Center. The chances of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Thursday, Aug. 27, were 70%, the center said
If the system does become the next tropical storm, it could be named Dolly, the next name on the center’s pre-arranged storm name rotation. The potential naming is unrelated to the Aug. 25 death of Dolly Parton
What conditions are forecasters watching?
The potential system is “the season’s healthiest tropical wave so far,” said Michael Lowry, a hurricane specialist with WPLG-TV in Miami. It will be the first during the peak of the season to “run the gauntlet through El Niño’s staunch central Atlantic wall of wind shear,” Lowry wrote in his Aug. 25 update
As it moves westward, it will encounter dry air and shearing winds that drop in over the western Atlantic during strong El Niño events
Forecast models are divided on whether the storm could survive the Atlantic’s “formidable shear zone,” Lowry said. If it does survive, some of the model scenarios indicate it could strengthen over the western Atlantic in the early days of September
Hurricane scientists also watch water temperatures at the surface and below the surface which can influence storm strength. In the Atlantic, sea surface temperatures are warmer than normal in the main hurricane development region, but not record warm, according to the Climate Reanalyzer from the University of Maine’s Climate Change Institute
Sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico have been climbing steadily and are once again at or near record warm, according to the reanalyzer. But the ocean heat content below the surface in the Gulf is far below normal, according to an ocean heat content page by Brian McNoldy, a senior research associate at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School
Have there been hurricanes during previous El Niño events?
Yes, but it gets tricky. Some of the storms frequently attributed to El Niño years occurred as the climate pattern’s influence was waning in the Atlantic. Others occurred when the event was far weaker than this year’s strong El Niño
Here’s what happened in previous seasons during strong El Niño events, according to hurricane center records:
- 1972 – Hurricane Agnes formed in the western Caribbean, made landfall in North Florida as a Category 1 hurricane in June and then interacted with another weather system to cause record-breaking flooding in the mid-Atlantic states. It made landfall as a tropical storm over Long Island and moved through Queens and the Bronx, and was called the most destructive hurricane in U.S. history at that time.
- 1982 – No hurricanes made landfall in the U.S., but Tropical Storm Chris made landfall in Louisiana in September, just east of the Texas state line, and an unnamed subtropical storm made landfall on Florida’s Gulf Coast near Homosassa Springs in June, causing several deaths, then moved over North Carolina’s Outer Banks.
- 1997 – Hurricane Danny formed in the Gulf in July and made landfall in Louisiana and Alabama.
- 2015 – Two tropical storms made landfall in the U.S., both early in the season, Ana in May over South Carolina, before the season started, and Bill, north of Corpus Christi, Texas, in June.
- 2023 – Hurricane Idalia also formed in the Gulf of Mexico, then made landfall along Florida’s Big Bend as a Category 3 hurricane with a storm surge of up to 12 feet, killing 12 and causing billions in damages as it traveled across the Southeast.
What’s the takeaway message?
U.S. landfalling hurricanes are less likely during an El Niño, but can still occur. That means it’s wise to be prepared for a storm, regardless of the odds
National Weather Service Director Ken Graham put it this way earlier in the summer: “Early preparedness is absolutely everything. Period. End of story.”
Dinah Voyles Pulver, a national correspondent for USA TODAY, writes about violent weather, climate change and other news. Reach her at dpulver@usatoday.com
