Jonathan Erdman
UpdatedSun, July 19, 2026 at 1:20 PM UTC
Tropical development is likely in the Gulf as early as today or tomorrow, and expected to bring locally heavy rain to Florida and parts of the Gulf Coast
(MORE:El Niño factoring into hurricane season outlook)
What may happen
An area of low pressure is forming in the eastern Gulf near Florida and has been enhancing thunderstorm activity over the Florida peninsula
This system has become better developed throughout the weekend, and will likely become a <a href="https://healthylife7.com/invest-91-l-could-become-a-tropical-depression-in-the-gulf-sunday/" title="Invest 91-L could become a <a href="https://healthylife7.com/tropical-depression-likely-to-form-in-gulf-development-odds-climb-to-80/" title="Tropical depression likely to form in Gulf, development odds climb to 80%”>tropical depression in the Gulf Sunday”>tropical depression or Tropical Storm Bertha by Monday
The hurricane hunters could investigate the system on Sunday afternoon
Regardless of what the system is called, it could spread rain and enhance winds to the Florida, Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana coasts and create rough seas offshore
Water in the northeast Gulf and off the Southeast coast is warmer than average, with water temperatures as high as the upper 80s available to fuel any thunderstorms and tropical development
Now is always a good time to make sure you’re prepared for hurricane season, well before any storms threaten
(MORE:How to stay safe in hurricane season)
Soaking rain possible
You don’t need a tropical depression or storm to wring out heavy rain in summer
Regardless of tropical development, there is a threat of locally heavy rain into early this week from parts of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast into the Carolinas. Isolated areas could see up to 5 inches of rain from west-central Florida to the Big Bend
For now, these locally soaking downpours are most likely in northern and central Florida, and will be above and beyond the typical daily afternoon scattered storms
While many of these areas are currently in drought and can use rain, these heavier downpours could lead to local flash flooding, especially in urban areas
(MORE:How to stay safe in a flash flood)
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.
