ByJoe Edwards
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Depression could cost the United States more than $4 trillion over the next quarter century, according to a new global analysis that identifies the U.S. as the country facing the largest economic burden attributable to the condition
The study, published in Nature Medicine on July 28, estimated the macroeconomic burden of depression across 154 countries from 2025 to 2050, using World Bank data and the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Researchers modeled how depression affects economies through factors such as labor force participation, education and work experience. Estimates were reported in 2024 U.S. dollars
Globally, the researchers estimated that depression will impose a $12 trillion economic burden between 2025 and 2050, equivalent to about 0.460 percent of annual global gross domestic product. When suicide-related deaths attributable to depression are accounted for, using an assumed 60 percent attribution rate, the estimated global burden rose to $14 trillion
US Faces Largest Projected Depression Cost
The U.S. accounted for the largest projected national cost in the study, with depression-related economic losses estimated at $4.087 trillion over the 2025 to 2050 period. That was almost double the estimate for China, which ranked second at $2.072 trillion, and far above the United Kingdom, which ranked third at $475 billion
The authors reported that the burden was especially high in North America when measured against regional GDP. Across World Bank regions, North America had the highest relative impact at 0.599 percent of GDP, followed by Europe and Central Asia at 0.506 percent and sub-Saharan Africa at 0.493 percent. North America also had the highest per-person economic burden, estimated at about $10,730
The study suggested that the largest economic hit comes from depression’s effect on work, including lower labor force participation and productivity, rather than treatment costs alone.The authors argued that spending on treatment should be seen as an investment that may support human capital development and economic growth
According to the authors, depression creates a “heavy strain” on the global economy, and the findings support treating depression as both a public health and economic concern. They also noted that reducing the health burden of depression could produce economic gains “by supporting productivity and capital accumulation.”
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US Depression Rate ‘Historically High’
Separate Gallup research published in September 2025 found that the country’s depression rate “remains historically high,” with the share of U.S. adults who reported having depression or being treated for it standing at above 18 percent in both 2024 and 2025. Gallup said the 2025 rate, measured at 18.3 percent, translated to an estimated 47.8 million Americans suffering from depression
Gallup reported at the time that the depression rate had increased by about 8 percentage points since its first measurement in 2015, with most of the rise occurring since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The percentage of adults saying they had been diagnosed with depression at some point in their lives stood at 28.5 percent, close to the record high of 29 percent recorded in the first quarter of 2023
The increases were sharpest among younger and lower-income adults, according to the findings. Among adults under 30, Gallup said the current depression rate doubled from 13 percent in 2017 to 26.7 percent in 2025. Among adults in households earning less than $24,000 a year, the rate rose from 22.1 percent in 2017 to 35.1 percent in 2025
Gallup linked depression to economic consequences as well, citing its own research estimating that depression among workers is associated with $23 billion in annual lost productivity from unplanned absenteeism alone
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: John Fitzpatrick and Shakeema Edwards
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